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Probability airport question code.

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Matthew Lozancich
Matthew Lozancich on 20 Nov 2017
Answered: Torsten on 21 Nov 2017
So I've been working on this problem for hours and now I'm stuck.. I can't figure it out. I know my probability is messed up, in fact I think it should be around 50%?
You are at the airport waiting in line to board a plane. There are 99 other passengers and unfortunately for you, you are last in line. At the front of the line you recognize a colleague, Frank. Frank is known to randomly sit where he pleases instead of his assigned seat. All the other passengers, including yourself, behave in a more sane fashion:
  • They will look to sit in their assigned seat, if that seat is available, theywill sit in their assigned seat.
  • On the other hand, if their assigned seat is taken, they will pick a free seatat random to sit in.
  • Create a function that runs a 10,000 iteration Monte Carlo simulation that estimates the probability that your seat will be taken
function boarding
%100 passangers, so assuming we have 100 seats
%Frank has a 1 percent chance of sitting in his assigned set if he picks at
%random
trials = 10000;
P=100;
inmyseat=0;
x=0;
for i=1:trials
x=randi([1,100],1);
if x==1 %if x==1 then it means Frank sat in his own seat
break
else
for P=(99:-1:2)
y=randi([1,P],1);
if y==1 %this means that if y==1 then they sat in my seat
inmyseat = inmyseat+1;
break
end
end
end
end
prob=(inmyseat/trials)*100
end

Answers (1)

Torsten
Torsten on 21 Nov 2017
function boarding
%100 passengers
%We assume that Frank's seat is seat 99, your seat is seat 100.
%Further assume that seat i belongs to passenger i+1 (i=1,...,98)
trials = 10000;
P = 100;
inmyseat = 0;
for i=1:trials
outcome = 0;
start = 1;
while outcome == 0
x = randi([start,P],1);
if x == P-1
outcome = 1;
inmyseat = inmyseat+1;
elseif x == P
outcome = 1;
end
start = x+1;
end
end
prob = inmyseat/trials*100;
Best wishes
Torsten.

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