SimCOVID 6.0

This package is used for simulating, tracking, and estimating the COVID-19 spread worldwide in a generalized, easy, and efficient way.

Introduction:
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This work presents open-source computer simulation programs developed for simulating, tracking, and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak. The programs are built in Simulink and MATLAB (two separate but related programs) and are aimed to be used for educational and research studies. It is not directed for any other reason such as medical or commercial purposes. The mathematical models used in this program are the SIR, SEIR, and SEIRD models represented by a set of differential-algebraic equations. It can be easily modified to develop new models for the problem. The package simulates all the outbreaks around the world in a generalized, easy, and efficient way. The infection and recovery rate functions are treated as constant, variable, or a combination of the two. In addition, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is employed and proposed to train the model and predict its output. As with any other open-source programs, this package comes without any guarantee. Please use it at your own risk.

Data Source:
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A simple script was coded to extract the data for each country from the excel sheet provided by the websites below and updated daily. you only need to enter the country name and run the model. You can easily edit the programs for your own use. All worldwide countries are included.
(1) https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
(2) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data

SimCOVID consists of two separate but related programs:
MATLAB Version:
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Several MATLAB programs with different versions are available using various models including SIR and SEIR representation. The programs are used for:
(1) parameter estimation
(2) tracking existing data
(3) forecasting future spread
You can edit the codes, add new differential equations, define new functions for the inputs such as the infection and recovery rates, and build a GUI for your model and use.

Simulink Version:
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The same basic models created in MATLAB are available in Simulink with a block diagram display. In addition, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is created to replace the differential equations in the model and predict the future outbreak. For those who have different versions of Simulink, the same programs were saved in the following versions: R2018a, R2018b, R2019a, R2019b, and R2020a.

Preprint Publication:
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063354v2
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340600580_SimCOVID5_Short-_Medium-_and_Long-Term_Estimation_SIR_and_SEIR_Models_-_Worldwide_Countries
https://search.bvsalud.org/global-literature-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/resource/en/ppmedrxiv-20063354

Videos:
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy_mnoaxHto

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRxNQFRs3bY